Former CIA Officer Mike Baker's Outlook on the Ukraine War

We're all occupied with Russia and Ukraine right now, but China's the bigger issue, right, in the long term. And we just need to, we need to be able to multitask and yeah, we got to worry about Russia-Ukraine conflict and does that get out of control or just, you know, where's it going? I guess that's a bigger question. Where do you think it's going? Yeah. I don't think anybody's got a plan in Washington right now or in NATO. I don't think anybody knows. I think they're all being basically reactive as opposed to, you know, what's the end game here? What is the final way that we wrap this up? And I mean, look, we've spent, the US has spent, I don't know, as of the end of 2022. And that was, that's almost a full year because it started in February. So almost in a full year, the US spent about $50 billion in assistance. And about half of that is military aid, right, in a variety of forms, right? High-more systems all the way to protective body armor, right? So it's all over the map in training. If you compare that $50 billion in aid to, and so what's that, about $25 billion in military aid. If you compare that to previous year or the year before, we were probably spending, on the Ukraine, we were probably spending $250, $270 million in military assistance. That's it, right? So that ramp up is incredible. And then that doesn't include what the EU has put into it, what the UK has put into it and everything else. So how do you back out of that? How do you say, okay, now we're putting a Patriot missile battery in there? And France and we have agreed, I think we're looking towards more advanced armor. Technology, we're going to give them tanks that they've been hankering for. Hankering? I said hankering. And so that might be a Ukrainian word. I don't know. I have no idea where it's going to wrap up. Putin's not going to give up Crimea. So what does that mean? Well, you've got to create some middle ground then where it's not going to be a complete victory for the Ukraine. And that's going to make a lot of people unhappy who are just standing around waving Ukraine flags. And so where do you go from there? I don't know. Hopefully there's some serious negotiations happening on the radar screen, but there doesn't seem to be a lot of evidence to that effect. And Putin doesn't seem to show any interest in it. And he's been able so far to tamp down on the dissidents at home. And really, much like with China, the only thing Putin would really fear is losing power. And he loses power if he loses the population. And so far that really hasn't happened. There's been protests. People unhappy with the... Sorry, that was my... That was your phone. That was my sports alert. I guess... You get a... Yeah, exactly. Whatever there's something big happening in the world of sports. And so anyway, to answer your question in a very lengthy rambling way, who knows where it goes. But it would be nice if we had more open discussion about it, at least in Washington, and open with our NATO allies about what's going to happen. We can't keep up, I don't think, the same pace of support. It seems unreasonable to think that we can. But... Has there been any discussion as to how long we do this for? Not really. I think there's... I think there's a general sense, because everybody's got ADD, there's a general sense of fatigue to some degree in some circles. But saying you want to know where it's going isn't saying that you're in support of Putin. And that's part of the problem. In today's world, if you say, well, so where is this all going? People say, well, fuck you. You're a Putin puppet. Well, no, fuck you. I just want to know what's happening. So... Yeah, it's weird like that, isn't it? I mean, it's so strange that you're either with them or against them, and you can't just be going, what are we doing? Is it not working? Lift the top. You gotta lift the top. Fucking hell. Do you not know how to work a cigar lighter? Ah, it's often... Do they teach you that in the CIA? It's technical nowadays. Look at that here. It's not really. It's really fucking easy. I look like a fucking monkey fucking a football here with your lighter. Do you know how to do it? No. Lift the top. No, look at this. I'm trying to lift the top, but it's like... Give me that fucking top. Oh, no, I'm going to figure this out. You're not going to figure it out. I'm going to spend the next two hours trying to figure this out. Paris, I think you're on the wrong side. Flip it over. Oh, for fuck's sake. Jesus Christ. There you go. Look at that. It's just... Bottom. I'm not paying any attention. I'm not paying attention. Besides the fact, I use a Zippo. Oh. Remember the Zippos? The ones that leave that nice smell. Yes. That gasoline smell. And I got a couple of Biclighters too. And you know the nice thing about them? I don't know what the fuck with the top. That's true. But anyway, that was... There you go. That was mildly embarrassing, but I'm too old to be embarrassed about anything anymore. So, I mean, worst case scenario is this breaks out in a nuclear war, right? The top lifts up. Yeah. Yeah. That's the worst case scenario, right? Yeah. If you look at... Maybe this is a good time to say, okay, 2023, here we are. What should we pay attention to? What are we going to look at? With Russia, Ukraine, you're right. If suddenly Russia decides, I'm going with an unconventional weapon, right? It's time to break out the nuke. And let's see what that does to the community of nations. So there's that potential in terms of how does this escalate. Something happens in terms of NATO when it drags NATO into it. That's a way this thing escalates. A cyber security attack in the region. Maybe initially targeted at Ukraine, but then it somehow goes off into NATO allies. It's a major issue. It shuts down power systems in Poland and surrounding region. So there's ways that this thing could escalate, get a little bit out of control. Maybe as we talked about, maybe there's increasing protest movement in Russia, maybe, and that threatens Putin's regime and that makes him decide to do something a little bit more drastic. What is the general consensus from the Russian people? They have a lockdown on the media in Russia, right? And even on the internet. Yeah, they do. And they've been very successful. It's not like the old days. And during the Cold War, you could put a complete blanket over it, right? And that was it. There was no way for them to get news. They're not completely shut off, right? So they know what the hell is going on. Russian people, the population in general, they're very switched on, pragmatic. They suffer well. And that's part of the problem. They suffer well. My friends from Russia have always told me that nobody believes the media. That it's kind of like a nod and a wink as to what the media tells you and that people kind of know that they bullshit you. There's a much more open, the reaction to the media is much more open. And in the United States, if you're one of those people that listens to MSNBC, you're all in. You're all in with Rachel Maddow. She's gone now, right? Whoever the fuck is over there now. You're all in with those people. If you're on Fox News, you're all in with those people. Right. No, the Russian general populations always had kind of a dry, very sarcastic sense of humor towards information in general, right? And what they're being told by the authorities. And that includes the media. So he can't control the population the way they used to, but they still, it's still a dictatorship. And so he's still got a significant state control. And the state media is still very good, as is the security apparatus, at controlling the message. So they're very good at that. And so that's kind of balanced against, and they're constantly in this battle against increasing technology and its ability to spread information that's outside the bubble. And so, yeah, I mean, there's dissent. There's a feeling of dissatisfaction. But Putin's been, he's been very good in the past at finding the bogeyman, right? Remember he's threatened of pointing to some outside force, usually us, and saying, look what they're doing to us, and kind of rallying the troops, getting everyone to, yeah, the motherland. So I wouldn't, it's like hoping that the, the, the mullahs, it's like hoping the Iranian regime topples under the weight of this current protest. I wouldn't hold out a lot of hope. I wouldn't put a lot of money on it. But I think that's a good thing. And I think that's a good thing. And I think that's a good thing. 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