Former CIA Agent Mike Baker: Sanctions Probably Won’t Change China

China scares the shit out of me. You know, I was watching a video the other day of the Uyghur Muslims and what they're doing and rounding these people up and forcing them on trains. It's like, it's terrifying. It's like, what are they doing? And they have no accountability. They don't, they don't have to... No, no. Now Xi literally has set himself up. We talk about Putin as, you know, saying himself as president for life, but Xi literally has set himself up as president for life. Now, if the Chinese economy, you know, goes sideways in a big way, all bets are off, right? And he may not be as stable as he's been thinking, but he spent years now strengthening and building up the intel apparatus within China, you know, for his own purposes and further moving away from this idea that somehow China was going to have a rule of law, right? It doesn't exist there. I mean, look, they fucked over the people of Hong Kong and we... Hardcore. ...could have cared less, right? We were all, everybody was all upset and angsty and protesting about Hong Kong and, oh my God, we got, we stand united with the Hong Kong protesters. And then we got, you know, up our own asses because we're all rightly so worried about the pandemic and, you know, oh, we got an election coming in November. And you know, while we're all looking that way, you know, Xi saw an opportunity and just fucked them over, right? And there's no consequence. Did they issue arrest warrants for US citizens? Yeah. Yeah. And there's really no consequence. I mean, so far anyway, there's, you know, a few talks of sanctions and, you know, some... But it doesn't mean anything. They essentially use the pandemic to decide to impose the same sort of restrictive laws that they have in the rest of China with Hong Kong. Yeah. Where Hong Kong used to be under British law and then was it 97 and transferred over to China? Yeah. And then in 1947 was kind of... That was the playing field they had in Hong Kong up until 2047. What kind of goofy ass deal did they negotiate where they gave it up in 97? So stupid. Well, yeah, I mean, they... They ruined. Yeah. They didn't... They really didn't have an option. So they felt that they were negotiating as best they could. There was a sense, I think, at the time that, look, we either do this and guarantee some runway for the people of Hong Kong with some pseudo democracy or, you know, China's just gonna say, fuck you, get the hell out and it's ours. I don't think China would have done that because, look, they need Hong Kong as a legitimate financial capital, right? But I think what's gonna happen now, given what they've just recently done, is, you know, they're gonna turn Hong Kong at best into a pass-through for hard currency, basically. And you're gonna see a lot of people moving out, not just expats and financial institutions. You're gonna see a lot of the more successful and educated Hong Kong citizens who are running businesses there, who have been running businesses there, saying, fuck it, it's not worth it. And so, you know, I think the Chinese regime, I think, has probably fucked themselves over and away, but it's just an indication of Xi's mindset, right? He doesn't really care. And it's just like their buildup of military capabilities in the South Pacific, their work in cyber activity, their continuing hoovering up intellectual property. It's not gonna stop them, you know? I mean, now, if it's better that we do make an effort, it's better that we do, you know, put sanctions on them for a variety of reasons, including the Uyghurs, but will it change overall? Will it change their behavior? Probably not. It's so weird. It's so weird to watch it happen. It's something that people weren't really terrified of 10 years ago. They weren't worried about China taking over the world. But now it seems like it's a real possibility. Yeah, and in fact, it wasn't that they weren't worried about it. They were looking at China like, you know, it's a great marketplace. You know, this is where we need to be now. And you could argue the tech companies still do that, right? The tech companies, they don't look at China, you know, as a threat to national security. They look at China as an opportunity, right? And they always have. So that explains in part, you know, sort of their behavior towards the Chinese regime. But yeah, make no doubt about it. Xi's got his eyes set on being at the top of the food chain. So we can either deal with it or we can pretend it doesn't exist. You think they're going to ban more companies the same way they ban Huawei? Well, it depends on what happens in November, right? I guarantee you that Chinese government would like to see Biden win. Really? Oh, yeah, absolutely. I mean, if, you know, as would, you know, for their own reasons, I think, you know, people who subscribe to the Trump as Putin's puppet will scoff at this idea. But look, the Russians, I think, would prefer to see Biden win as well, right? I mean, they can get back to business as usual, probably ease up on the sanctions. You know, the left, the hard left, anyway, has been very successful over the years at this Russian narrative, right? And fine, it worked for them, you know? It spent three years in this, you know, pushing this particular narrative. But I think overall, the Chinese, the Russians, they would prefer to see someone like Biden come in. I think they feel like it would be a more collegial approach from the White House, less confrontational. And I think that's just where we're at. Look, I mean, you know, Bill Gates, Bob Gates used to be the director of the agency, right? And he worked for a couple of administrations. And he said himself that Biden's never been on the right side of a foreign policy decision. So that's one area where, again, going back to what we talked about earlier, is, you know, if he's going to choose a vice president, I'd rather he choose somebody who's got as much national security and foreign policy experience as possible, because I think that's one area where he's going to be lacking, even though he says, oh, I've worked in foreign policy all my life. Doesn't mean anything just because you were there doesn't mean you've got good judgment or, you know, anyway. Yeah, what do I think it's do you think that the policies that Trump's put in place for China are actually beneficial to the United States? You think it's a good step? Yeah, I do. I do. Because it's put them on the back of China. I mean, it's put them on the back foot. Right. That's not a bad thing. Made them a little less sure about what they're doing. They've had to think about things a little bit more. They have had to. Yeah, the sanctions. I wish that we would sanction them hard for the Uyghurs. I wish we would sanction them very hard for what they've done in Hong Kong. I'd like to see that happen. I think what we're seeing now, though, is obviously the pandemic has deflected a lot of attention and also, you know, the closer you get to any presidential election, the less shit gets done. You know, it just so I don't know that anything meaningful is going to happen over the course of the next handful of months. And who knows what the fuck's going to happen in November?