Joe Rogan - Peter Schiff Predicts Another Financial Crisis

Hello, freak bitches. We set ourselves up for, I think, a currency crisis, not just a financial crisis where mortgages are in trouble, but where the dollar itself is collapsing. Our money is collapsing. Prices are skyrocketing. It's going to really hit the average American much more than just the stock market going down. When your money is going down, when the cost of living is skyrocketing, that is going to be a big problem for a lot of people. That's where we're headed. It's ultimately going to be a dollar crisis. That's really in my business, in my brokerage firm in Europe, Pacific Capital, that's what I'm trying to do is help people protect their wealth by getting out of US dollar assets, by investing in Singapore, in Switzerland, in New Zealand, in Hong Kong, and other countries, owning other assets to try to protect themselves from this crisis that is coming. Most people are going to get blindsided by it, just like they were by the last one. What is the crisis? How exactly do you feel it's going to go down? Because I did watch some of your videos about the housing crisis from 2008. You're predicting it years in advance. Yeah. I mean, look, things always happen. I see things years before they happen because I understand- And you're not the only one, right? No. This is something amongst your peers and your colleagues. You guys are all discussing this. Well, I mean, there are people, most people who feel the way I do, maybe aren't, they weren't on television saying it. They were saying it to their buddies in their own living rooms and they were getting laughed at just like I was. I guess I used to get emails from people, hey, I've been saying, now this is exactly what I've been saying and everybody thinks I'm crazy. And they're the same one. It's everybody else that's crazy that just gets caught up in it. But what's going to happen is we are going to go back at some point into another statistic recession. I mean, I think that we've kind of been in one this whole recovery because I don't think the government numbers are really that accurate. I don't think that inflation is as low as they claim, at least as measured by the consumer prices. So I think that the economy has actually been contracting during the years that we've been pretending it's been growing. But I do think at some point, statistically, we will go back into a technical recession where even the government admits that the economy is shrinking, right, where the GDP is negative for a couple of quarters in a row. And then what is the government going to do as a result of that? They're going to do exactly what they did before. They're going to take interest rates and bring them back to zero from wherever they are. The difference is normally they lower interest rates and then by the time there's another recession, they're way back up four, five, six percent. This time they barely got them back to one percent and they kept them at zero for seven, eight years, which is unprecedented. And of course, the mistakes that are made are a consequence of money being too cheap. The reason that we had a real estate bubble, the main reason was because Alan Greenspan lowered interest rates to one percent and left them there for about a year and a half and then took about a year and a half to raise them back up to normal. So you had a few years of artificially low interest rates and that gave us this huge housing bubble. Well, we had seven, eight years of zero. The mistakes that have been made under Obama dwarfs the mistakes that were made under Bush. And these are mistakes that are a consequence of money being too cheap, of the government setting the price of money as opposed to the free market. You get too much debt, you get too much speculation. And so we've got a much bigger bubble now. And when this one pops because it's so much bigger, right. So then all of a sudden the Fed has to cut interest rates again. And now what happens to the dollar? Because see, the dollar has been rising these past few years because everybody thought, oh, the Fed's going to normalize interest rates. The Fed's going to shrink the balance sheet when none of this stuff happens, when the Fed goes back to another round of quantitative easing, when they got to crank up the printing presses, when they don't shrink the balance sheet but they blow it even bigger, right, it goes to five and a half trillion, six and a half trillion. I think the bottom's going to drop out of the dollar. I think the dollar is going to get killed the opposite of what happened in 08. When the financial crisis hit in 08, the dollar had been falling for seven years. It was at an all time record low. And then when the crisis hit, it actually caused people to buy the dollar. But I think this next crisis is going to be the big sell signal for the dollar. People are going to rush out of the dollar as the Fed has to go back to more QE as people realize that this is what I said from the beginning. This is a monetary roach motel, right, the Fed checked us in and they ain't checking us out. There's no way to normalize rates. There's no way to shrink the balance sheet. And when people realize that this is a permanent situation, the bottom drops out of the dollar. And then commodity prices really start to rise. Remember when oil prices went from like $20 a barrel in 19 and 2001 up to 150, right, that was happening because the dollar was falling. And as the dollar starts to fall, all these commodity prices are going to rise again. And now inflation is really going to pick up the way they measure it. And the government can't do anything about it. They can't raise interest rates because if they raise interest rates, they collapse everything. All the banks that were too big to fail, they're bigger now and it would be even worse if they failed. So they can't let rates go up. Because banks absorbed other banks. They got bigger. And now you have all these banks that have all these long term loans that have low coupons on them. If interest rates go up, all these big banks are going to fail. I mean, people think rising rates are going to be good for banks. They're going to destroy the banks. They're going to destroy the housing market. I mean, and the government, this is the biggest thing. Look at the national debt. The national debt is about 20 trillion, the bonded debt. And that, of course, that doesn't even count all the unfunded liabilities. That's just where the government has sold the bond, right, Treasury bond. That's about 20 trillion. Well what would happen if interest rates went to 10%? Well it would cost the government $2 trillion a year just to pay the interest on that 20, we don't have anywhere close to that. I mean, right now interest rates are almost zero and we're spending about $250 billion a year on interest. But if interest rates actually went up because the Fed had to fight inflation, the Treasury would have to default. They would have to tell the, we can't pay on these bonds. What are you showing me, Jamie? Is this the national debt? Oh that's the national debt proc. Oh God, look at it spinning. Is it at 20 trillion yet? Oh it's so close, $19,973. Look at it spinning. Oh God. Yeah I know. That's horrific. But, and so obviously the Fed has to keep interest rates low so the government can service that debt. Look at Medicare, Medicaid, Jesus Christ. What is that? Well yeah, you can find the per capita. You add it all up. That's not even a billion. Is that a trillion? Huh? What, that's not even a trillion. Which one are you looking at? Right there. What is that? No, that's 1.1 trillion. Oh it is? But that's largest budget items. Those are budget items. Oh. That's the budget. Social security, that's not the debt. That's what they're spending. Oh God. Look at those numbers. They'll go down lower. They'll probably have all the unfunded liabilities that earn that page somewhere. Oh my God. And then they break it down. Then they break it down per capita, per taxpayer. I mean it's an art. But my point is that we've got like an adjustable rate mortgage on that national debt. The government's got ultra cheap money. If interest rates spike, there's no way that the government can pay that debt. This is hypnotic. It really is terrifying. I've never seen it before. I've never seen it before either. I've seen that one in Times Square. That's why I'm saying Puerto Rico, Puerto Rico would be, it would be so idiotic. It's so idiotic for Puerto Rico to want to join the union and absorb their share of that debt. Now for the average person like myself who has zero understanding of the financial system, you listen to Trump talk about the economy booming and it's on an upward thing and unemployment is down and jobs are up. Yeah. I mean, bullshit. Yeah, that's what's really bothering me about Trump is the hypocrisy because when Trump was a candidate and he got elected because by and large he told the truth about the phony nature of the recovery. Obama was out there talking about how great things were and Trump was like, BS, it's not great. Oh, you're talking about low unemployment? That number is bogus. The real unemployment rate is 20% or 25%. People stop looking for jobs and it doesn't count anymore. Yeah, they gave up looking so they don't have a job. They're not counted as being unemployed. He pointed out that all the jobs ... Here, this is irony. What are the byproducts of Obamacare? Obamacare said that if you have a full-time worker, you have to give him health insurance. Full-time was anyone that worked 30 hours or more. Well, employers aren't dumb. They can do math. Hey, if this guy is working 40 hours a week, I got to give him health insurance, which is very expensive. But if he works 29 hours a week, I don't. What happened? Employers started transitioning their workforces from full-time workers to part-time workers. What happens if I'm going to have only part-time workers? I'm going to have more workers, because each one is working fewer hours. I have more jobs. If I had 500 part-time jobs, but now I have 1,000 ... I mean, if I had 500 full-time employees, but now I have 1,000 part-time employees, that's twice as many jobs. Obama got credit for all those extra jobs. As we were destroying full-time jobs and replacing them with two part-time jobs, we got all these jobs. Trump was honest as a candidate, these are low-paying jobs, these are crappy jobs, and a lot of the people that were getting jobs were older people who don't want jobs. They were retired, and now they're working at McDonald's part-time because they can't live on their retirement money. In fact, when you look at the labor force participation rate that he would talk about, where labor force participation is collapsing is with young people. People in their 20s and 30s can't get jobs. Now, 70 and 80-year-olds are working in record percentages because they can't afford to retire and their grandkids can't get a job. Trump was telling the truth about how bad the economy really was, and that resonated. A lot of blue collar guys, a lot of Democrats in the Midwest voted for Trump because he got it. He understood, he felt their pain like Bill Clinton. Obama was in a fantasy. Hillary was pretending that everything was great under Obama. People didn't want four more years of that, so they voted for Trump. Also, when Trump was a candidate, he talked about the stock market because, oh, the stock market was going up when Obama was president. Trump said, well, it's a bubble. Who cares about the stock market? This is a big fat, ugly bubble. Wait till it pops. He was right about that. Now he's president. What is he saying? Every time I see him, this stock market's a new record high. This is fantastic. It's all because of me. This is great. When the jobs numbers come out, oh, look how low the unemployment rate is. This is the lowest it's been in 15 years. I'm doing a great job. Nothing has changed. This is the exact same economy he inherited. It's the same crappy jobs. It's the same stock market bubble. The only difference is he's not a candidate anymore. He's the president, and now he's trying to market the same crappy economy that Obama had and pretending everything is good. I wish he would stay true to the candidate and admit, you know what? The economy is still a disaster because nothing has changed. He was going to drain the swamp. Instead, he just poured more water in the same swamp. To actually drain it means to really shake things up. In a way, he's shaking things up, but not the way that's going to get meaningful change for the country. The shaking up that he's doing is not what people were voting for. We really need real substantive economic change, but the president is not able to deliver it. He's surrounded himself with the same cronies that were around in the Bush administration. Look, good is going back to Bush.